According to The Kobeissi Letter, traders face six macro catalysts this week: August Retail Sales on Tuesday, the Fed interest rate decision, the FOMC press conference, and updated dot-plot on Wednesday, plus the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and Initial Jobless Claims on Thursday, source: The Kobeissi Letter. The releases are scheduled by the U.S. Census Bureau for Retail Sales, the Federal Reserve Board for the rate decision, press conference, and dot plot, the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia for the manufacturing index, and the U.S. Department of Labor for jobless claims, source: U.S. Census Bureau; Federal Reserve; Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia; U.S. Department of Labor. Crypto traders should monitor BTC and ETH as FOMC days have historically shown elevated intraday volatility across digital assets and macro-sensitive risk pairs, source: Kaiko research. Rate guidance in the dot plot and any growth signals in Retail Sales can shift the U.S. dollar and Treasury yields, indirectly impacting BTC and ETH liquidity conditions during and after the event windows, source: Federal Reserve; U.S. Census Bureau.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index dropped by 38.9 points in April 2025, reaching -26.4, the lowest level since April 2023 and the second-lowest since 2020. New orders fell sharply by 42.9 points to -34.2, marking their lowest point since April 2020 (source: The Kobeissi Letter on Twitter, May 12, 2025). For crypto traders, this significant downturn in US manufacturing signals potential risk-off sentiment in traditional markets, which could drive increased volatility in Bitcoin and altcoins as investors seek alternative assets.

According to The Kobeissi Letter, the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index plunged by 38.9 points in April to -26.4, marking its lowest reading since April 2023 and the second-lowest since 2020 (source: The Kobeissi Letter, Twitter, May 12, 2025). Additionally, new orders fell by 42.9 points to -34.2, the weakest since April 2020. This sharp contraction in US manufacturing signals increased economic uncertainty, which often leads to heightened volatility in both traditional equities and the cryptocurrency market as traders seek safe-haven assets and reassess risk exposure.